Bitcoin or gold: what if we can soon make gold?
The Strategic Newb Editorial Team
Translated from the original; figures and sources have been preserved. Read the original →
Suppose a power plant not only supplies electricity, but also gold. And that future mining companies will extract metals from space. How safe is gold to protect your assets?
Bitcoin seems to offer an answer: a digital asset with a fixed maximum. But that scarcity exists thanks to software and people who continue to follow the same rules.
Bitcoin or gold: which is safer for wealth preservation? For a defensive role, gold is currently the better-supported choice. Bitcoin offers a more tightly limited supply under current rules, but has greater price fluctuations and other technical risks. New technology could change that equation, without identifying a winner for the next fifty years.
Can we make real gold in a laboratory?
Yes. Gold is an element, and by changing an atomic nucleus another element can be converted into gold.
CERN reported in 2025 that lead nuclei in the Large Hadron Collider had turned into gold nuclei. The experiments from 2015–2018 yielded approximately 29 picograms: 0.000000000029 gram. The fast gold nuclei then collided with parts of the installation and disintegrated.
This proves that the conversion is possible. It does not prove affordable production of gold bars. Source: CERN and ALICE
Could nuclear fusion make gold less scarce?
Marathon Fusion is exploring a different route: using neutrons from deuterium-tritium fusion to convert mercury-198 via mercury-197 into stable gold-197.
The company describes gold as a possible byproduct of future fusion power plants. Energy and gold would then generate income from the same installation. That's a proposed production model, not a proven commercial gold plant. Source: Marathon Fusion
More investments can accelerate development: more experiments, better equipment and more specialized researchers increase the chance of progress. However, money does not automatically remove technical boundaries.
Even with low-cost fusion, the availability of suitable raw materials, processing, maintenance and control of radioactive by-products remain relevant. The economic breakthrough will only come when salable gold is produced at a competitive total cost.
The question is no longer just whether we can make gold. The question is how much does it cost to make it.
Why lab diamonds are no guarantee for cheap gold
Lab diamonds show how much production processes can improve. According to the Gemological Institute of America, quantity, size and quality have increased dramatically in recent decades.
The comparison does have a limit. During diamond production, existing carbon atoms grow into a crystal. For gold production from another element, the atomic nucleus must change. That requires a different type of installation and process. Source: GIA
The success of lab diamonds makes progress in gold conceivable. It does not provide a reliable timeline for the same price development.
What if we get gold from space
The presence of a resource is different from an economically recoverable supply.
NASA's Psyche mission examines a metal-rich asteroid to learn more about planet formation. It's a scientific mission, not proof that gold mining on asteroids is profitable. Source: NASA
For a future space mine, a company needs to know which metals are present, in what concentration and how they can be extracted and processed. Transport, infrastructure and sales costs are then taken into account.
If gold can ever be brought cheaply from space, supply could increase and the price would come under pressure. That is an economic scenario, not a fixed forecast.
The popular calculation “quantity of metal times the current price” is also inadequate. A huge new offering could actually change that price.
Why bitcoin has a different kind of scarcity
Under current rules, the total supply of bitcoin is approaching a maximum of 21 million. More energy or more computers does not increase that maximum.
The mining difficulty is adjusted periodically. As a result, more computing power does not permanently translate into proportionately higher issuance. Source: Bitcoin Developer Documentation
This gives Bitcoin a special feature: its supply limit does not depend on how many resources humanity discovers.
But limited supply does not automatically protect your purchasing power. Demand must also continue to exist. An asset can remain scarce while interest in it decreases.
Can programmers change the bitcoin limit
The software is customizable. However, a developer cannot impose a change on all users.
Participants choose which software they use. An additional release version can be rejected by nodes that enforce the existing rules. Different rules can lead to split networks.
The limit is therefore protected by technical controls and the willingness of participants to maintain it. That makes it difficult to change, but not an immutable law of nature. Source: Bitcoin.org
There is also an economic incentive in this protection: those who value bitcoin because of its scarcity have reason to reject additional issuance. No one can guarantee how strong that shared preference will remain in the very long term.
Can bitcoin be hacked
“Hacking” can mean different things.
Attacking a wallet or trading platform. A stolen key, deceptive website or hacked platform can cost an owner money without breaking the network protocol. Loss or theft of access is a major storage risk. Source: SEC Investor.gov
Attacking transaction history. A lot of computing power can be used to reorganize recent transactions and double-spend out-of-pocket payments. Under the existing rules, such an attack does not give the right to create unlimited new coins or to randomly spend other people's coins. Source: Bitcoin Developer Documentation
Software and cryptography also form dependencies that must be maintained. It matters to the owner where a malfunction occurs, but the ultimate loss can be real in several scenarios.
Bitcoin or gold for wealth preservation
A fixed supply limit and a stable asset value are different properties.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute research on daily prices from 15 June 2018 to 17 June 2026 calculated annual volatility of approximately 60% for bitcoin and 17% for gold. Those figures describe that measurement period; they do not predict future fluctuations. Source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Such a difference is relevant for someone who will need money soon. An investment can have a convincing future story and yet fall sharply at the wrong time.
| Item | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Basis of scarcity | Cost and difficulty of extraction | Limited issuance under network rules |
| Possible future additional offer | New mining and possibly nuclear reactions or space mining | A change to the current issuance rules |
| Storage risk | Theft, forgery and custody costs | Key loss, digital theft and risk at custodians |
| Technical dependence | Physical gold does not need a network to exist | Digital infrastructure and cryptography |
| Price behavior in the said measurement period | Less volatile | More volatile |
| Automatic protection against inflation | No | No |
The way you invest changes the risks. Physical gold at home, gold at a custodian and an exchange product are different constructions. The same applies to your own bitcoin management, a trading platform and an exchange product.
What protects prosperity when technology changes everything
My assessment: Gold is currently a better fit as a defensive addition to a portfolio. Bitcoin suits an investor who wants to follow the development of digitally scarce money and can bear significant losses.
For broad wealth preservation, diversification is more convincing than making everything dependent on one scarcity story. Productive assets, such as broadly diversified stocks, represent companies that can earn income. Safe reserves can prevent you from having to sell during a price drop. The appropriate ratio depends on your horizon and expenses.
Moreover, a future in which energy becomes cheaper could simultaneously change commodity prices and make companies more productive. Anyone who focuses exclusively on scarcity may miss some of that economic growth.
Technology can change how much gold we can produce. People can change how much value they place on bitcoin. The wisest wealth strategy takes both into account.
Frequently asked questions about bitcoin and gold
Is bitcoin safer than gold
That depends on the risk. Bitcoin has a tighter supply limit under current rules. Gold experienced smaller price fluctuations in the historical comparison mentioned. Neither of these guarantees maintenance of purchasing power.
Can cheap nuclear fusion cause the gold price to fall?
This is possible if it actually leads to large quantities of affordable, sellable gold. Cheap energy alone is insufficient to guarantee that result.
Does more mining make bitcoin less scarce
Under current rules, more mining does not increase the maximum supply. The network adjusts the difficulty level periodically.
Is laboratory gold real gold?
Yes, when it comes to gold atoms. Isotopic composition, purity and possible radioactivity must also be suitable for use and sale.
Can gold become worthless due to space mining
That does not follow automatically. The price would depend on recoverable quantities, total costs and demand. A future mine could affect supply without making gold worthless.
This article provides general information and scenario analysis, not a personal investment recommendation.