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The forces shaping global trade, technology and markets.

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Geopolitics / Defence

Second Thomas Shoal Resupply Mission Halted by Chinese Vessels

A Philippine mission to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre was suspended after Chinese vessels interfered on 24 September. No one was injured, but the failed delivery tests a fragile 2024 arrangement and raises the stakes for Manila's next attempt to reach its outpost.

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Strategic Technology / Defence

Anthropic Pentagon Ruling: US Court Backs AI Supply-Chain Exclusion

A divided US appeals court has upheld the Pentagon's exclusion of Anthropic's Claude from its military supply chain. The ruling raises a wider question about control over military AI, while a separate California judgment means the legal picture remains narrower than a blanket ban.

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International Business / Economic Policy

Brazil Online Betting Ban Reverses a Young Regulated Market

Brazil has moved to prohibit online sports betting and casino-style games after opening a regulated market in 2025. Deposits stop immediately, customers have a withdrawal window and operators face closure. Congress, the courts and illegal-site enforcement will decide how durable the reversal becomes.

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Large refuelling aircraft and a distant fighter above a coastline, with an oil tanker at sea below
Geopolitics

UK Saudi Arabia Military Support: Why Britain Is Refuelling Saudi Jets

Britain has agreed to refuel Saudi aircraft following renewed Houthi attacks. The RAF Voyager mission is limited, but it adds a new form of military support while Saudi oil infrastructure and Red Sea shipping face pressure. Here is what has changed, what Britain has committed to, and what remains uncertain.

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Radar dome on a snowy ridge overlooking an icy fjord and mountains
Geopolitics

Greenland Defence Agreement: What the US Gains Without Owning the Island

The US, Denmark and Greenland have signed an Arctic defence agreement that identifies two additional locations for American military activity. It leaves sovereignty with Denmark and still needs parliamentary procedures before taking effect. Here is what Washington gained, what Greenland retained and which decisions come next.

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Blank red folder on a conference table in an empty meeting room
Geopolitics

EU Russia Sanctions Extension: Three More Years, Two Prominent Names Removed

The EU has renewed a major set of individual Russia sanctions for three years, while deleting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from the list. The decision preserves restrictions on more than 3,000 people and entities but exposes a dispute over exceptions. Here is what the published decision actually changes.

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Laptop displaying financial market charts
Markets

US Treasury yields end the week higher: why borrowing costs matter

US government borrowing benchmarks rose over the week, increasing the financing hurdle for businesses and households even as Friday brought partial relief.

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Modern office building
Economy

US consumer sentiment falls as inflation expectations climb

The final September survey points to weaker confidence and greater price concerns, putting the resilience of household spending under scrutiny.

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Oil pumpjack in an open field
Energy

Oil prices fall on truce hopes, but supply recovery remains uncertain

Friday’s oil-price decline reflected diplomatic hopes. A durable reduction in energy costs still depends on physical supply and reliable shipping.

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Container ship carrying cargo at sea
Geopolitics

Trump Rejects Hormuz Plan: Why Global Energy Risks Persist

Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal leaves a critical energy route in focus. The next test is whether diplomacy delivers reliable shipping and relief from inflation pressure.

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